Returning to Forthright Radio is University of Chicago Political Science Professor, Robert Pape. In 2003, he founded CPOST, the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, a non-partisan research center dedicated to advancing scholarship on international politics, security and trade that advances peace and prosperity, which he continues to direct. He was our guest in 2023, when he spoke about the demographics of those who had been prosecuted for their participation in the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the US Capitol.
From 1994 to 1999 he taught at the United States Air Force’s School of Advanced Airpower Studies. He has served as an advisor to both Barack Obama and Rand Paul. His books include Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War; and Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism. His latest book, OUR OWN WORST ENEMIES: AMERICA IN THE AGE OF VIOLENT POPULISM has just been published by The New Press.
Immediately after the US-Israel continuation of the war against Iran on February 28, 2026, which began in June of 2025, Robert Pape began using his Escalation Trap substack (https://escalationtrap.substack.com/), to warn against that dangerous endeavor. Although initially derided, his strategic framework, The Escalation Trap, has proven all too predictive.
He outlined Stage One: Initial precision airstrikes and leadership targeting that fail to cause regime collapse, leading instead to a hardened Iranian response. Stage Two: Asymmetric retaliation by Iran—including actions around critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz—leveraging energy and oil dynamics to inflict economic costs on the U.S. and global markets. Stage Three: The looming or active threat of ground-combat deployment (such as Marines or airborne units) and wider regional or global fallout. According to Pape, once trapped, leaders are cornered between two bad choices: walking away (which risks letting a rival grow more regionally dominant) or further escalation (which risks a massive, high-casualty quagmire). He characterizes the post midterm lame duck period as increasingly dangerous.
We spoke with Robert Pape on November 6, 2026 the Friday after the midterm elections.
Articles, etc. pertinent to this interview:
The Midterms Didn’t End the Iran War. They Made Escalation More Likely | Robert Pape https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0Nf1XTPOq4
Pardoned January 6 participant charged over alleged threats to kill federal judges https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/03/jan-6-rioter-judges-murder-threat
Ecuadorian fishermen who survived US boat strikes sue Trump administration https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/14/ecuadorian-fishermen-lawsuit-trump-boat-strike
Third aircraft carrier and thousands of troops head to Mideast as Trump weighs new Iran strikes https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-trump-ships-deployment-middle-east-42c23e9af0333f4bc3b4f419cc3a603e
Strict Scrutiny Republican Rep. Moves To IMPEACH Pete Hegseth https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK9N8YLA8tw
Aliya Rahman Sues U.S. Government For January Abuse By ICE Agents In Minneapolis https://www.huffpost.com/entry/aliya-rahman-sues-ice-government_n_6af33704e4b0779b5f34b898
Iran War Expert: The 8 Most Dangerous Weeks Begin Now! | Prof Robert Pape https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1mI-ozLyYM
The Midterms Jesse Welles https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcA0ky7cKUE&list=RDlcA0ky7cKUE&start_radio=1
Something Very Serious Is Unfolding for Israel. | Lawrence Wilkerson https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G11_5H6xrlg
